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Investors warned of slide in shares - by The Telegraph

By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor Last Updated: 7:26am BST 25/10/2007

The credit crisis is far from over and British shareholders are at serious risk of becoming its next victims, the Bank of England has warned.

  • In an unexpectedly downbeat report on the state of the British financial system, the bank warns that the UK stock market is "particularly vulnerable" to a downturn.

    Almost all British workers have money invested in shares – either directly or indirectly through their pensions and life assurance plans – and could lose out if share prices suffer a significant fall.

    The bank warns that there is a significant risk of the City and Britain's financial system becoming embroiled in further turmoil as a result of the credit crisis gripping the world's money markets.

    The "credit crunch", which has already caused a run on Northern Rock bank, is far from over, it says.

    And today, retail entrepreneur Sir Philip Green warned that the shockwaves from the crisis will be felt throughout the economy.

    "Money's going to be more expensive, there's going to be a concern or an awareness that it's going to be tougher," the Topshop and Wallis owner told BBC Radio 4's Today programme.

    The alarming diagnosis comes as Alistair Darling, the Chancellor, faces tough questioning on Thursday from the Treasury select committee about the Government's handling of the Northern Rock crisis.

    In its twice-yearly Financial Stability Report, the bank also signals that first-time buyers and buy-to-let landlords are the most at risk of defaulting on their mortgages and bankruptcy in the months ahead.

    First-time buyers are now paying 20 per cent of their salaries in mortgage interest repayments — the highest proportion since before the last property crash — and are among those who are "particularly exposed" because they have had to "stretch themselves more than would normally be the case in order to get on the housing ladder".

    It echoes recent warnings that problems in the buy-to-let sector — where rental yields are two per cent lower than mortgage costs — may trigger a wider slowdown in the UK housing market. "Recent investors are relying on continued house price appreciation to earn positive returns," it says. "Buy-to-let investors have often invested in new-build flats in the United Kingdom, which have experienced much lower rates of price appreciation than houses."

    The bank also raises its "danger level" warning on all parts of the financial system and warns that the value of shares – known in the City as equities – is now at risk.

    "The financial system is more than usually vulnerable to further adverse shocks — sourced either in recent events or from new sources, such as the equity markets or a weakening commercial property market," the report says.

    The warning will cause major concern in the markets, since many had assumed that the City had already shaken off the effects of this summer's financial crisis.

    The credit crunch occurred after hundreds of thousands of US home owners defaulted on their mortgages, leaving banks and investors across the world out of pocket. The resulting squeeze pushed up borrowing rates in the UK as banks attempted to recoup their money.

    The Bank of England expresses surprise that the UK stock market, which dropped in value significantly over the summer but has since recovered fully, has remained so resilient.

    However, it warns: "A deeper downturn in the United States and rising credit defaults could trigger a further round of asset price falls. Equity markets seem particularly vulnerable."

 
 
 
 
   
 
 
 
 
 
   
 
 
 
 
 
   
 
 
 
 
 
   

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